Casino Opens Soon - Get Ready!
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by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc.
Hey. HEY! Stop looking at Hyperliquid and read this.
Alright so, the market sold off some on Friday, it’s not the end of the world.
If your world ended then it’s because you have too much leverage on and you chased the rally too late. If that is with your own money its survivable, if it was your clients’ money they likely will be having words with you or your boss.
Let’s look at how the Nasdaq and the S&P500 look at this point, with the benefit of a couple days’ rest behind us. Here’s $SPY on the daily.
A straight drop through the 21-day EMA and with a close at more or less the session lows. Not pretty, but it’s one day so far and it comes after an exceptionally strong period.
Here’s $QQQ on the daily.
Same chart, more or less.
Now look at the volume in each case - there is a huge red bar on Friday showing massive volume in each of the index ETFs. It’s never easy to say “that was just panic selling” this close to the event, but there is a good chance that this was a case of too much hot money piling in too close to the top and then with only the mildest of catalysts, stocks and crypto started to dump and then selling begat selling, etc.
So what does this coming week have in store?
BTFD?
Well, it’s easy to assume a simple V-shape recovery - we’re all trained in Pavlovian manner to expect that now. So we look for confirmatory evidence over the weekend on venues where there is scant liquidity to see what will happen to the mighty S&P500 and Nasdaq on Monday. This is pointless. Whatever may be happening over the weekend in native Bitcoin or Ether, or in SPY proxies on crypto exchanges, tells us nothing about what is to come. If, like me, you opened a position in Bitcoin and added to an $ETHA position on Friday after the close, you are looking at low-liquidity crypto prices right now and patting yourself on your back for your fortitude, I have news for you. Nothing that happens Saturday or Sunday is very much relevant to how your weekday investments play out.
But for the record here’s the bounce thus far in Ether and Bitcoin.
See the reason it’s meaningless so far is volume. You want to see either continued slow and steady buying over the course of a week or two, or a giant spike in buying right away, to counter the crescendo of selling you see through last week.
The same is true in the SPY and the QQQ. The price action will tell us what is happening - no need to guess. The first test for both is - do they reclaim the 21-day EMA from below. If yes, back on the bull train; if no, prepare for more selling.
Upcoming Earnings
This week we have at least two stocks reporting earnings that will tell us something about the AI trade. On Tuesday, $FCEL - Fuel Cell Energy - prints. This has long been a solution looking for a problem but today the company is focused on providing datacenter power where none is viable from the utility. The stock has run up a lot on this promise and on Friday sold off along with the market.
No support as yet - again I personally would want to see this back up and over the 21-day EMA to get excited about this name.
On Wednesday, $ORCL reports, and that will tell us a lot about datacenter build, enteprise software usage, and so on.
You can read our most recent review of $ORCL, here:
Alex King
A low risk way to play $ORCL at present is with a long position here, plus a stop placed a litle below the 200-day moving average.
Worst case you lose a few $/share, best case blastoff.
Stay Tuned
Personally I shall be watching Monday’s open very carefully, and the close still more closely. Remember closing prices are much more meaningful than the open as they reflect a day’s worth of high end trading.
We’ll be posting through the week as normal.
Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. - 7 June 2026