Doomsday Chronicles, Sunday Edition - The Cestrian Circle Newsletter

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Is It, For Real This Time, All Over?

by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research

Heading into this week, taking a poll of the Internet, the only things that investors have to be concerned about are (i) global instability (ii) only-up oil prices (iii) pending food price inflation that no-one really wants to think about (iv) shortages of noble gases (v) the end of the petrodollar system oh and of course the ever-present (vi) Global Thermonuclear War. Also, it’s GME earnings Tuesday.

Now, as everyone knows, the Internet in general and Finance Twitter in particular never was capable of seeing a drama without then turning it into a crisis entirely in its own mind. So it’s important to keep level-headed about the week ahead.

Let’s take a look at where key markets stand right now. We can guess something about where price goes next from where price has been.

Here’s the S&P500 in $SPY ETF form.

Will The S&P500 Crash?

I think not before the midterms, is what I think. The $SPY may yet fall to $625, the .382 retrace from the all-time highs, but even if it does I think it can make it back up to $730 - $780 in the coming months. A stop somewhere below $625/share can be used.

Let's turn to crypto.

Will Crypto Crash Or Is Jamie Dimon Coming To Save Us All?

Bitcoin remains some 13% over its Q1 lows struck on 5-6 March. A whole lot of volume came in at that at that time; you can see from the chart below that the selling right now isn’t particularly committed, with only modest volume in recent days.

Bitcoin should be on the floor if risk flight was underway, and it isn’t.

How about oil?

The Oil Price

Curiously sideways at the moment as regards oil futures. Real-world barrel deliveries less so, but that’s not our concern here.

Why Haven’t Markets Crashed Yet?

Markets are holding up, and oil holding flat, because thus far no-one has run for the exit in any volume. And that is because markets are expecting either (i) a de-escalation in the Gulf and/or (ii) some kind of liquidity influx or other stimulus to save markets. My guess is we do get (ii); (i) is beyond my pay grade and I defer to others on the question. What will crater markets is a deepening intractable situation with ground troops and more, coupled with a laissez-faire approach to securities markets.

I think any prudent investor should be prepared for that eventuality ie. we just flip to selling and people are scrambling out the door. It would be wise, in my view, to have some resting sell-stop-limit orders in place on every line item in your portfolio. And if they start popping off, resist the tempation to just dive back in.

Here’s Micron for instance. A stop below the 50-day SMA somewhere below $400 could save your bag if things get worse, but will incur only a 10% realized loss from here.

You have plenty of time between now and Monday’s market open to load up those stop-losses. That way if the Big One hits, you will have plenty of cash to pass onto your surviving relatives, and if it doesn’t, your wealth will probably keep climbing. You win either way!

Until then -

Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 22 March 2026