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Wave 3 or Value Trap? Incyte After Q4

Nathan Brinkman

In its Q4 2025 earnings update, Incyte Corporation (NASDAQ: INCY) reported strong revenue growth, with total revenue of $1.51 billion, up about 28% year-over-year and exceeding consensus, driven by higher product sales including Jakafi and Opzelura, though adjusted EPS of $1.80 slightly missed estimates. Full-year 2025 results showed total revenue of $5.14 billion (+21%) and net product revenue of $4.35 billion (+20%), reflecting broader portfolio momentum.

For 2026 guidance, Incyte forecast total net product revenue between $4.77 billion and $4.94 billion, with Jakafi expected to remain the largest contributor (~$3.22–$3.27 billion), Opzelura projected at $750–$790 million, and hematology/oncology products guided to $800–$880 million, alongside continued investment in R&D and late-stage clinical programs; however, the revenue outlook came in below previous investor consensus.

What impact does this have on our ongoing investment thesis?  Let's have a look.