Intel (INTC) Q1 FY12/26 Earnings Analysis (No Paywall)
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Analysis by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
Liftoff
Intel stock exploded +18% in postmarket hours yesterday after the earnings print. In premarket today it sits at $81/share. We rated the stock at Accumulate between $17-24/share, and had it rated at Hold into earnings. So if you bought at the top of our accumulation zone, you’d now be +237%, and if at the bottom, you’d be up 376%. Not too shabby. We continue to rate the stock at Hold, though we assume you will be taking care of your own risk management up here, as the stock has absolutely blown through our price targets!
Fundamentals
The numbers are improving, they aren’t yet wonderful as the company continues to burn a lot of cash and the balance sheet remains indebted. But as a turnaround story it is working out well so far.
The reason for the valuation explosion is geopolitical - in an increasingly protectionist world, the US is racing to reshore everything it can in the semiconductor value chain, and Intel is the fulcrum point of this change; it has fabrication, CPU, GPU, interconnect IP, packaging IP and more besides.
INTC Valuation
The stock is “too expensive” on fundamentals but again, fundamentals aren’t driving the price here.
INTC Stock Chart
The chart looks like a runaway growth name.
The best way I can think of to trade this is to just use a moving average. The 21-day EMA is a way away now; the 8-day may be more useful. See this recent video of ours for this method (we use ASTS as an example but the method is widely applicable).
Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 23 April 2026