Market On Open, Friday 20 February
DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Read our full disclaimer, here.
To Bomb Or Not To Bomb, That Is The Question
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc.
$USO has run right up to resistance, likely in anticipation of potential military action against Iran. You can open a full page version of this chart, here.
In addition, the Vix (remember: a measure of demand for S&P500 index puts with >30 days to expiry) has trended consistently up since its December lows. Full page version, here.
Now, the normal course of market action here is: rising fear into the event (so oil up, Vix up, gold up, equities down) and then a collapse of fear after the event. This assumes (i) the event happens and (ii) that the event is a typical strike ie. does not trigger wider escalation. From a trading perspective - the human perspective is for other fora, this is a securities service - often the easiest way to play this is, wait for the Vix to spike and then buy equities as the Vix starts to drop. You have to be quick about this to get maximum value but if you do, it means you’re buying when everyone is selling. And as long as you use sensible stop-losses, your downside is limited but your upside can be grand indeed.
On the subject of short term trading - our Jay’s Options service is, admittedly by our own reckoning - one of the very best short term trading services you can find anywhere on the Internet. On the downside, it has no meme game, doesn’t tout its four good trades on X whilst ignoring the 15 terrible trades, and it doesn’t feature any Discord-style make-your-own emojis. If you like to trade for the yucks and the banter, all well and good, this is not for you. But if you like to trade to, you know, make money - you’re missing out if you haven’t tried this service.
Here’s a recent testimonial from an actual paying subscriber:
October 2025 - 'Jay is one of a kind'
'I’ve been trading options for years, Jay can tell you everything there is to know about the domain and more but he’s not stuck in the theoretical. He provides the community with a constant stream of actionable trade ideas. Lately the service expanded with scalps (intraday share trades) prompted by a period of reduced premia. Jay is adapts and adopts. Cannot think of any other service like it, Jay is one of a kind. Highly recommended.'
Take a look here.
Alex King
Righto. The market. Let’s get right into it. Today’s note is for our Inner Circle members only.