Market On Open, Monday 9 June

DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.

Much Ado About Nothing

by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc

The upside of sitting at a screen all day is that you can usually find a way to make some money whatever the market is doing. The downside is that in the pursuit of said money, you have to be very careful to not have your blood pressure elevated so much that you lose sight of the overall market direction. The best example of which is April 2025, which was (i) a nothingburger if you were busy doing something more interesting all month and also (ii) an nonstop roiling psychodrama if you were glued to the action the whole time.

Today was a nothingburger in the S&P and the Nasdaq on an open-to-close basis but there was some drama during the day. Semiconductor on the other hand, continues to moon.

At some point we are going to see some cooling off and consolidation of the run-up since the post-Liberation Day lows; I would be surprised if that translated to a scary sell-off, but the Vix continuing to bumble along at the lows suggests a degree of complacency amongst investors that is usually followed by some lessons in why not to get complacent.

Let’s check in on markets and see where we stand.