Market On Open, Thursday 26 February
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Hunt The Saboteur
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc.
If you have been losing money lately, it’s not your fault. It is one of the following people:
- Citrini Research
- Jane Street
- Crypto Whales
Also let’s not forget the ever-popular:
- Market Makers
For the avoidance of doubt, this is all garbage. If you’ve been losing money lately it’s because you aren’t doing it right. Because the waters in which we swim have been populated by sharks, orcas and meat-eaters all of kinds since time began. Your job as an investor or trader is to steer the boat around What Lies Beneath and make money anyway. One day, perhaps, all markets will go private and then we’ll have a whole new set of challenges. But until then we have fundamental data, we have price and volume data, and from that flows all else. Reading company financials, learning to plot stock charts, and working out which algorithms to use and which to avoid, these skills will stay with you for life.
In case you missed this video recently, this is one of my favorite Bamboozles of all time - Wyckoff Rotation. Once you learn to spot it, you can make money just like Big Money, in good markets and bad, and stop worrying about the Boogeyman.
Nvidia
If someone tells you the quarter was alright, or weak, or disappointing, it’s very important you stop listening to that person. Here’s our take on the company’s earnings report yesterday.
Alex King
Speaking Of Nvidia
For single-stock investing and trading in the top names, don’t miss out on our YXI Systematic Signals service. This service is extremely easy to use. Each morning, before the New York open, you receive a simple set of signals for each of the 15 tickers it covers - these are all highly liquid stocks and ETFs. A signal of “1” means “buy” or “hold” (if the signal was 0 yesterday it means buy, if it was 1 yesterday, it means hold). A signal of “0” means “sell” or “do nothing” (if the signal was 1 yesterday it means sell, if it was 0 yesterday it means do nothing). You can do with these signals what you will - trade them mechanically, factor them into your own analysis - whatever. But if you had traded them mechanically from inception, this is what the model has achieved:
This 26.8% gain, from inception on 1 April 2025 to 23 Feburary 2026, has been achieved with a Sharpe ratio of 1.91 and a maximum drawdown of 8.3%. Or to translate: doubleplusgood.
You can learn more here:
Alex King
Righto. The market. Let’s get right into it. Today’s note is for our Inner Circle members only.