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A Revenue Beat Wrapped in a Litigation Bill

By Nathan Brinkman

Moderna’s Q1 2026 revenue of $389 million came in well above analyst consensus of ~$236 million and the company is on track to reiterate up to 10% full-year revenue growth. On the legal side, an $878 million litigation settlement charge drove the reported GAAP net loss to $1.3 billion hiding what would otherwise have been an encouraging quarter. The single biggest story for the remainder of 2026 is now the August 5 PDUFA date (the target date by which the FDA is required to provide an approval decision) for mRNA-1010, the seasonal flu vaccine. That date is effectively a referendum on Moderna’s ability to become a multi-product company in the U.S. market. Everything else is noise by comparison.