Nvidia Q4 FY1/26 Earnings Review

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Numb To It

by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc.

If I told you that, hey wow, I just found this incredible business, it has $118bn of trailing-twelve-month unlevered pretax free cashflow, which oh by the way is growing at 55% per year, yes the cashflow not the revenue, it has north of $50bn in the bank, revenue is growing at 73% this quarter with a guide of acceleration, the stock has gone sideways for six months meaning its valuation multiples have compressed, and finally on any kind of p/e/g or ev/rev/rev growth basis this thing is cheap, you would say “tell me how I buy this thing!”.

Instead this is what you see in the news today:

Rating, “Meh”, according to lazy people.

Know what I think? I think this bull market has at least one more run up in it, and I think it is going to take NVDA up with it. And if I’m wrong, a stop-loss will save you as always.

The sideways price action in NVDA stock since August can be seen as “distribution” for sure. The PETER THIEL IS SELLING, RUN FOR THE HILLS thesis. Could be true. But it’s also a kind of price compression in such a high growth company, because the stock price is basically unchanged for months, revenue and cashflow have mooned since August, and there are less shares outstanding (because the company buys a lot of them back) than back then. Oh also the company has a lot more money in the bank now, buyback program notwithstanding.

Let’s get into it.