Opendoor Q4 FY12/25 Earnings Review (NO PAYWALL)
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Let’s Keep It Simple
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
Opendoor $OPEN is a well-marketed stock with a newly-hired high profile CEO. So you’re going to read A LOT about its Q4 numbers all over the internet in the coming days.
We can keep it simple here. This is my take, reductionist perhaps but I think these are the essentials:
- Revenue continues to decline but I suspect this is just a lagging indicator of the work being done at the company.
- Cashflow is very, very strong, driven primarily by the reduction in inventory of property.
- The balance sheet is in perfectly good shape for now.
- The stock is cheap in my view, at around 1x TTM revenue / 5x TTM unlevered pretax FCF.
The chart is helpful insofar as you have a meaningful low of $4.20-ish below which you can place a stop. Yes, that’s a good deal below here but this is a highly volatile stock so, what do you expect?
If the stock holds over that level it has a shot at making it to $11-13/share before a more material correction. So about 5:1 risk:reward from here. You can open a full page chart, here.
Volume x price (gray horizontal bars) is spiking down here too, suggesting potential accumulation.
Here’s the numbers:
Here's the inventory unwind (that’s a good thing btw):
And finally the valuation:
Friday's close will tell you what the market really makes of this thing. Personally I am long $OPEN and likely to add to the position.
DISCLOSURE: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in $OPEN
Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 19 Feb 2026