DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Read our full disclaimer, here.

The Cliff is Still Coming

By Nathan Brinkman

Pfizer posted a Q1 Revenue of $14.5 billion and beat consensus by 5%. The adjusted EPS of $0.75 beat by 4%, and the company’s transition away from COVID-era dependence might be starting to show some traction. Recently launched and acquired products grew 22%, Padcev surged 39%, Nurtec 41%, and Lorbrena 32%. However, Pfizer still faces the most consequential patent loss cycle of any large-cap pharmaceutical company over the next three years, with products generating approximately $21 billion of revenue in 2024, now facing exclusivity loss between 2025 and 2028. This quarter shows that Pfizer’s commercial machine and recently acquired oncology assets are starting to perform. Yet, the unresolved question is whether the rest of the pipeline can be built fast enough to absorb what is coming.