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Too Big to Pivot?
Part II: The Holding Pattern Continues

By Nathan Brinkman

Pfizer closed the fourth quarter still navigating a multi-year transition away from COVID-driven revenues toward a more traditional large-cap biopharma growth profile. Reported results continued to reflect declining demand for pandemic-era products and the early effects of loss-of-exclusivity headwinds, partially offset by improving performance across the non-COVID commercial portfolio and ongoing cost discipline. Management reaffirmed forward guidance, framing 2026 as a bridge year in which execution, integration of recent acquisitions, and late-stage pipeline progress will be critical to stabilizing revenue and supporting longer-term growth. As with prior quarters, the investment debate centers less on near-term earnings delivery and more on whether Pfizer’s pipeline and business development strategy can meaningfully replace legacy revenue streams over the next several years.

Highlights:

• Q4 2025 Revenue: ~$17.6 billion, down ~1% year-over-year (as expected)
• 2025 Revenue: $62.6 billion, a ~2% operational decline vs 2024 (as expected)
• ~6% operational full-year growth when excluding COVID contributions.
• 2026 Revenue Guidance: Affirmed in a range of $59.5 billion – $62.5 billion. (0 to -5% decrease from 2025 - average guidance is ~ - 2.5%)
• Guidance reflects anticipated COVID revenue decline (~$5 billion) and loss of exclusivity impacts next year.

For 2026:

• Strong growth from recently launched and acquired products, partially offsetting COVID declines.
• Increase in R&D spend, particularly in oncology and obesity programs.
• Lower margin shifts due to R and D pipeline sales and adjustment away from COVID sales declines.
• Management emphasized ~20 pivotal study starts planned in 2026, supporting long-term pipeline growth.

Will Pfizer continue to slowly pivot from its COVID driven revenue model?