What If This Really Is The Golden Age?
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Market On Open, Tuesday 21 April
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc.
Investing and trading requires you to think differently. At the moment we have soaring US risk assets - equities at all time highs and bonds moving up even with oil elevated - at at time of substantial global economic risk arising from the war in the Gulf. In recent days this divergence between apparent reality and securities pricing has become rather marked, with everyone other than trend-followers shaking their heads and saying some version of (i) this is madness (ii) this is rigged (iii) it’s The Fed’s Fault (iv) some other conspiracy theory. Now sometimes, as Kissinger observed, even paranoids get followed and so sometimes conspiracy theories are in fact true. And one should never discount the sheer power of Federal liquidity. But what if … the US is winning out in the race to re-establish global hegemony? What if … the US is decoupling from China and Europe and building its own powerhouse? Wouldn’t that explain the roaring bull in US assets?
If you like to think differently, you need to read three recent notes on the war in the Gulf by Mr. Robert P. Balan of Predictive Analytic Models. You can find them all on X.
Robert may be right or wrong, I don’t know, but I do know that when you see a decidedly counternarrative piece of analysis from a non-ideologue, you need to read it and think about it.
Those of you who are Cestrian Inner Circle members can reach Robert anytime in Slack Chat if you want to quiz him further on this topic.
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Alright. Let’s take a look at markets at the open.