Will The War End Soon?
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Market On Open, Monday 23 March
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc.
I am no military historian. But I am willing to bet that for pretty much all wars ever, they haven’t gone to anyone’s plan. The opportunities and risks that each side thinks will be in front of them usually work out differently - sometimes better, sometimes worse - and the ebbs and flows of advances and retreats on either side of any war I am pretty sure are also unpredictable. Weather, technology, allies’ positions, economic pressures, cultural pressures, such things have been known wildcards in documented history since at least the Peloponnesian Wars. Anyone who claims to know how the present war plays out is deluding themselves or their audience. Too many factors are at play. And this dictates how, I think, one should invest or trade with this war as a backdrop. Will oil continue to moon? No-one knows. Will silver keep selling off? No-one knows. Was it expected that in a time of such conflict, gold would dump but Bitcoin run up? I doubt it.
Keep Calm And Carry On
Personally I have been following two types of analysis through this war, and none of them involve the news or guessing what will happen. The first has been stock charts, and the second has been algorithms. Both are cold as ice and both have been aligned pretty closely on when to dial risk on and when to step back. The fact that both our families of algos - one purely numeric and one macro-driven - and our stock charts - purely numeric and treating each stock as a closed system with no outside influences - have been flagging more or less the same thing has added to my confidence. Would you have guessed that Bitcoin would perform better than gold in this environment? I would not, but our algos and our charts said this loud and clear, so I have followed them.
Did Stocks Crash Already?
I keep reading that STOCKS AND BONDS HAVE CRASHED DUE TO THE WAR and it’s just not true. The S&P is down some from its all time highs, and bonds have seen a promising rally stall out. That’s it. If you want to invest and trade successfully in this and all other environments, I would ask you to come join us if you’ve yet to do so. We never get despondent and we never get euphoric. All we do is follow price and volume. We do pretty well as a result.
On the subject of which, let’s get to it.