Will This Market Crash Because Of The War?
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Market On Open, Monday 6 April
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc.
If you have been expecting this market to crash because of the war, you have been sorely disappointed so far. Looking on a 2026 YTD basis, oil is up hugely of course, and equities are off their highs. Gold is up a little. The most important bond ETF is flat. If you knew nothing about anything you would say there appears to be something very stressful going on in the oil market which thus far has not spread to other markets.
This is not at all what one would expect. Gold should be up bigly as should bonds, and equities should be getting hammered. Right?
Of course. Yes. According to anything that anyone was taught in business school. In times of global risk, capital rotates to safety, being US Treasuries and gold. And it gets out of stocks.
So, either (i) the global risk is overstated and/or (ii) Treasuries and gold don’t represent safety and/or (iii) the business school teaching is wrong.
I favor (iii) as the explanation for this.
It is, as always, critical to free your mind from what “should” happen in markets and look instead at what is happening.
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