Market On Open, Sunday 4 January

Last updated on Jan 4, 2026

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The New World Order

by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc

The timing and the details of the Venezuela event may have been a surprise to you, but if you’re questioning why it happened at all, you haven’t been paying attention.

The post-WWII order has been dead for some time; the new world order has yet to emerge but it will be more akin to “might is right” than it will to consensus-building.

You can like this, dislike this, be indifferent to it, doesn’t matter. If you want to invest with the tide rather than by hoping for a return to a better-understood (hindsight is like that!) period, then you should assume this is the new normal.

From a markets perspective I believe one should continue to follow the Tepper Trade ie. assume that the U.S. Government is going to do what it says it will. The likely outcome of regime change in Venezuela is structurally lower oil prices in the US and a strengthening of the US’ position as an oil exporter. The more global resources the US controls, the more U.S. dollars non-US players need to get through the week. So if the Venezuela event plays out as intended, U.S gas prices should fall, inflation should fall (because oil is in everything), the U.S. dollar should strengthen and so too should U.S. Treasury Bonds (ie. bond prices up, yields down).

Now, “should happen” isn't the same as “will happen” or “has happened” so a little moderation is needed here before haring after the “obvious” trades. My own take though is, bullish the dollar, bullish Treasuries, and (perhaps after a shaky start) bullish U.S equities and bullish the upper echelons of crypto. Like all Administrations this one means to be successful in the midterms - that’s November this year - so I would expect that the Administration will be doing all they can to support risk asset prices into year end. Doesn’t mean they will succeed. Does mean I think lean bullish if unsure.

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US 10-Year Yield

TO REPEAT: If efforts to drive down the yield, to the benefit of bond prices for holders, and to the benefit of the bigly-refinancing U.S. Government, then this local high could really do with holding.

Equity Volatility

Any Vix spike arising solely from the Venezuela news I would expect to be short term. There are reports of U.S. aircraft heading to Iran at the time of writing; if true, anything kinetic there may cause a more determined run up in the Vix.

Disclosure: No position in any Vix-based securities.

Longer-Term Treasury Bonds (TLT / TMF)

Long-Term TLT Chart

No change. Bullish accumulation in my view.

Short-Term TLT Chart

The local floor here is holding around $87, tested on multiple days.

Short-Term TMF Chart

Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.

TMF will be a safer hold if and when it gets up over the 200-day SMA at $39.30 or so.

Disclosure: I am unhedged long $TLT and $DLTA (an EU UCITS TLT proxy).

Gold

No change to target $4600-4800. Gold futures are up in the immediate aftermath of the Venezuela event; that makes sense as a kind of chaos-hedge but if in fact inflation starts to fall on oil falling, we may see gold top out sooner rather than later.

Disclosure: I am positioned in gold according to our Commodities Algo Service and our SignalFlow AI Growth Service.

Bitcoin

Bitcoin’s bullish move continues. The near-term catalysts for a bitcoin move up are, in essence, all liquidity-driven - reduced bank capital requirements >> increased capital to brokerages >> increased margin capital >> more buying of risk assets.

Disclosure: I am long $IBIT.

Ether

If Ether continues to move up, $3600 (the 200-day SMA) will take some defeating.

Disclosure - Long $ETHA and others in the Ether complex.

Oil (USO / WTI / UCO)

Larger Degree (USO)

Smaller Degree (WTI Futures)

Down a touch in early futures trading.

2x Levered Long (UCO) / Short (SCO)

Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.

Disclosure: I am positioned in oil per our Commodities Algo Service.

S&P500 / SPY / UPRO

Larger Degree

Still has the bullish look on this timeframe.

Smaller Degree

Closed Friday over the 21-day EMA but below the 8-day SMA. Needs to regain that 8 if it is going to move up.

3x Levered Long / Short ETF - UPRO, SPXU

Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.

Disclosure: I am long $SPY and long $IUSA ie. unhedged long the S&P.

Nasdaq-100 / QQQ / TQQQ

Larger Degree

A very simple roadmap to follow. For now we’re bullish.

Smaller Degree:

QQQ isn’t wonderful here - it needs to put in a strong move up to recapture the 21- day EMA and the 8-day SMA if it is to remain bullish.

Levered Nasdaq - TQQQ Long / SQQQ Short

Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.

TQQQ likewise has some work to do - I personally think this is not a bad entry point for TQQQ as long as one sets a stop around say $49 as protection if the selling continues.