Market On Open, Thursday 30 October
DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Read our full disclaimer, here.
Why Only Price Matters.
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
If I sit back and try to think about whether the market is about to crash or not, here’s the list of counterpoints I have to think about and mark in the “bad for the stock market” or “good for the stock market” column.
- Poor people can’t afford ketchup (source, KraftHeinz yesterday). That’s bad.
- Rich people can afford everything. That’s good.
- Most everyone you talk to thinks a top is approaching. That’s good. (Because usually sentiment is flat wrong).
- There’s a book doing the rounds about 1929. That’s also good. (Because opposite day).
- RobinHood will allow shorting of stocks on their platform. Also good. (Because Ken Griffin will be buying the stocks that RobinHoodr’s are selling).
- The 1929 guy is on the floor of the NYSE whooping it up. That’s bad. Surely. Because karma.
- Meta earnings were dire. That’s bad.
- Microsoft earnings were great. That’s good.
You see? Who knows. It’s not possible to work it out. The only way to work out when price has stopped rising and starting to fall is by watching price. And then a bunch of stuff like moving averages and Fibonacci levels and whatnot but, first, price. Up, good, down, bad. Simples.
OK let’s get to it. Let’s see how markets stand in the light of the FOMC and earnings thus far.
Join our Inner Circle service if you want the good stuff every day in your inbox.
Black Friday Sale
From now through end November we have a singular item on sale, which is our cheapest Inner Circle membership.
Our 6-Yr Extended Membership is available at a 30% discount; normally $19,999 for Independent Investors or $39,999 for Investment Professionals, this can be had for just $13,999 or $27,999 respectively. That’s less than $7/day for independents, less than $14/day for pros. I’m pretty sure you can find multiples of that value in our work.
To join on the monthly or the annual, click the paywall break below. To join on the Extended prices, use these buttons right here.
As always, any questions, you can reach us at minerva@cestriancapital.com or by using this contact form.