Market On Open, Tuesday 4 November
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Is The Bull Dead?
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
There hasn't been a new all-time-high in the S&P500 since … last Wednesday. This is presently causing great consternation amongst investors everywhere. The fact of price slippage is being amplified by the King Of Broken Clocks, a Mr. Burry, who according to various posts on X has banked billions of dollars on short positions in Nvidia and Palantir. This is untrue, of course; he has filed a 13F with details of put positions related to large allocations of Nvidia and Palantir stock were those puts to be assigned, meaning that in fact he has a more normal sized short bet in place on these names. It may well prove profitable, I don’t know, but I don’t think it’s evidence of it’s all over run for the hills.
More than ever, with markets extended, “it’s all over” psyops in full effect on social media - not just Burry, think Sorkin too - the thing to do is to focus on price. I know I say this all the time but it can be hard for any human to resist the “SELL YOUR STOCKS AND RUN!!” messaging that abounds at this time. If you’re cautious and you want to protect your holdings, I know of no better risk on / risk off measure than the 21-day exponential moving average. Above it, good, below it (for a couple days’ closing in my view), bad.
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