Market When Open, Wednesday 12 November (Part I Of II)
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Motor Cruiser or Yacht?
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
This is the question on everyone’s lips. Well, everyone that works over there at Big Money HQ anyway. Bad year? You’re out. And good luck getting back in unless you’re a nepo baby of some standing (the original kind of affirmative action hire!). An OK year? Maybe you pay off the mortgage on your mom’s place. Solid year? The mortgage on the Hamptons place, your mom’s mortage, maybe a GT3 and, why not, a nice little classic Riva for jaunts on the lake. A really good year? Who is it that owns Motor Yacht A these days … can my guy get it for me?
2025 has been an easy year for newbie investors and a very difficult year for old lags trained in risk management. If your investing style is Pavlovian (someone tweets buy the dip, you buy that dip with both hands) then until maybe a couple weeks ago you were happily posting your ginormo returns in your Robinhood account on X. (Presumably only worrying about home invasion risks after you posted). If you’re some time into a long career and you’re managing to “keep my job” not “max my returns” then you’ve been hedged every which way but loose all year and if you end up coming even close to the S&P500 performance for the year you’ll go home with the mother of all stress-relief headaches come December.
The selldown in recent days and weeks I see as a way for the old guard to get one final push up into year end before bonus calculations. If you already dumped equities and scared the civilians into selling their quantum stocks, wheeled out Mr. Burry to get folks to sell the Nvidia and the Palantir and whatnot, all you need now is to run the index up big into year end thus to suck all the poors back into the market, buying your book right around bonus time. This is my primary reason to expect a move up in equities into year end. Never underestimate the power of the market to take money off of the little people and give it to bigs - this after all is its purpose.
Commodities
Read this. Even if you don’t know anything about copper or care a hoot about palladium, read it. And thank me later.
Alex King
Now, let’s take a look at where all the moving parts stand. Join our Inner Circle service if you want the good stuff every day in your inbox.
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