NO PAYWALL VERSION: Market On Open, Friday 3 October
DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Read our full disclaimer, here.
Still No Cats
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
Yesterday was one of those days in the market when you just have to marvel at the incredible wealth-generating capacity of this particular casino. More or less everything was up, and what’s more, the crazier the name the more up it was.
For the avoidance of doubt, this market regime will not last. It is a melt-up, and melt-ups cannot last. They always end in tears for those people who think it isn’t a melt-up.
I believe the correct approach to equities and crypto right now is very simple which is, get ahold of the free money on offer, don’t forget to turn it into actual money. Use stops, hedges, take profits, whatever is your preferred risk management, but manage risk.
If you don’t know how to manage risk, don't worry, neither do the vast majority of investors. That’s why most people get destroyed by markets like this. The turn comes when people least expect it, when they’re in the riskiest assets, and then it all turns to dust. This is what happened as 2021 moved into 2022. It’s what happened when 2019 moved into 2020. And it’s what happened when 2007 moved into 2008. Oh, also when 1999 moved into 2000. So you can see that general destruction isn’t the exception, it’s the rule. The market needs destruction of unsuspecting investors’ accounts so that the grownups can then pick up stocks at exceptionally low prices. Because when folks’ accounts get trashed, not only have they lost money, they have lost all confidence and dare not step back into the market at the lows even if they do have cash on hand. This is when all the big money is made by Big Money.
We can teach you how to manage risk. We can show you how to enter a position at the lows and protect yourself against a further drop; we can show you how to know when a top is approaching and how to time your exit accordingly. We can teach you how to hedge using ETFs or put options. We can, in short, teach you to be a truly market-neutral investor, able to make money in bull, bear, and sideways markets. We do this in written notes, in live chat in our enterprise-grade Slack environment (no amateur-hour Discordia for us), in live, open-mic webinars.
If you’d like to become a truly market-neutral successful investor, join our Inner Circle service. Here’s a note from a member of the service which pretty much sums it up.
"Saved My Portfolio Bacon"
Cestrian Capital Research's Inner Circle services are exactly what I’ve been looking for and not been able to find until now. I’ve subscribed to several well known stock picking & research services over the years, but none of them match the combination of analysis, selection, process, monitoring and timely trading alerts which I need. The ability for me to accumulate, hold, & distribute selected stocks with confidence based on trading price points developed by Cestrian using a combination of Elliot Wave Theory/Fibonacci Retracements/Wyckoff cycle timing all informed by institutional trading volumes is what I really value, along with really good quarterly earnings reports, which further reinforce stock updates. Alex saved my portfolio bacon with his “Buckle Up” post in November 2021, which prompted me to sell 50% of my holdings across the board that day - how I wish I had sold 100%, but I was new to the service! Cestrian communications come with the added bonus of humour & self deprecation, they are fun to read. Chad no more!
You can learn more about Cestrian Inner Circle here.
Alex King
OK, let’s get to work. This no-paywall version of our daily Market On Open note includes coverage of Ether, the S&P and the Nasdaq. If you’d like the full daily note covering yields, bonds, equities, volatility, oil, crypto, and key sectors, join Inner Circle.
Ether
Up and over the key moving averages and sights set on $5500-6500 I think.
If you’d like to have AI help you to trade Ether, Bitcoin, Solana and key crypto-centric stocks, take a look at our Big Money Crypto algorithmic signals, here (independent investors) and here (investment professionals).
Disclosure - Long $ETHA and others in the Ether complex.
S&P500 / SPY / UPRO
No change. Up.
aaaand still holding up over all moving averages. Bullish.
3x Levered Long / Short ETF - UPRO, SPXU
Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.
As a reminder - when volume in SPXU drops … that’s when the reversal likely starts!
Disclosure: I am long $IUSA, and long SPY puts for December expiry. In aggregate net long the S&P.
Nasdaq-100 / QQQ / TQQQ
Still climbing the stairs.
Er - up.
Levered Nasdaq - TQQQ Long / SQQQ Short
Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.
Another heads-up indicator - watch the 8-day SMA on SQQQ. For now, still below.
Disclosure: I am hedged 1.6:1 $TQQQ:$SQQQ, and have $TQQQ and $QQQ puts for December expiry. Overall net long the Nasdaq.
Alex King, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 3 October 2025.
DISCLOSURE - Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in, inter alia, TQQQ, SQQQ, IUSA, SOXL, SOXS, SMH, TLT, DTLA, ETHE, ETHA, XLK; long December TQQQ, QQQ and SPY puts.