Market On Open, Thursday 20 November
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Bright And Sunny Uplands Ahead Once More!
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
Either Jensen saved capitalism, or the Treasury General Account is unloading into bank reserves, then downstream into brokerage margin accounts and from there into the capillaries that feed thirsty traders with the nectar to YOLO once more. The coincidence of Nvidia earnings and the beginnings of a flood of liquidity into the system is too hard to pick apart but personally I favor the latter as the dominant theme. As Yimin noted yesterday:
“The good news is that TGA is now starting to move lower, meaning the government is spending cash on its reopening.On Monday, TGA moved from $959 billion to $925 billion, a notable one-day spend. If continued, which it should, we could see liquidity flowing back into the markets soon.”
If this thesis proves correct, we’re likely to see a runup in risk asset prices into year end.
Here’s another take on this macro picture, from Alan Longbon, who is low-key one of the best macro commentators around.
Substack
After the deluge? Who knows. Anything can happen. But for now? Up, I think.
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OK. Let’s get to work - our daily Market On Open note below covers yields, bonds, equity indices, sectors, oil, gold, Ether, Bitcoin and more, as always.