Market On Open, Wednesday 19 November
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Jensen vs. The Singularity
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
Want to know who the big winner is going to be from Nvidia earnings today after the bell? Could it be bulls? Maybe. Bears? Also maybe. Option buyers? Some of them. Option sellers? Yes.
With an expected move of +/- 7.7% in the stock price - that’s computed from implied volatility in the options chain pricing - if we get a more muted outcome then all those who have picked a side and gone in with gusto - those people come out with nothing or close to it. A quiet outcome would serve option sellers, the poster child of whom is Ken Griffin of Citadel, best of call. Personally this means I rather expect a muted reaction, short term at least. Make it as hard as possible for the 0DTE crowd to succeed.
This is the thing in markets; the most talked-about, most likely outcome is not always the most likely in the timeframe you are thinking of. If everyone is saying it’s going to happen then … probably it’s not going to happen. Not right now anyway.
There are many ways to focus on signal (price) and ignore noise (everything else save maybe for volume). One is to train yourself to focus very clearly on charts; another is to turn off all sources of extraneous information; the third is to hire a robot buddy who runs colder than you ever can.
This is what we talked about yesterday on our webinar with Jay Urbain and Yimin Xu. You can watch it right here:
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OK. Let’s get to work - our daily Market On Open note below covers yields, bonds, equity indices, sectors, oil, gold, Ether, Bitcoin and more, as always.