NO PAYWALL VERSION: Market On Open, Sunday 7 September
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Another Week Begins
by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc
Let’s take a look at where markets stand heading into this week.
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"A Great Fan Of This Service".
I have become a great fan of Cestrian’s investment research service in a relatively short (less than a year) space of time. Alex King, who leads the team, comments by email everyday giving his views on the current state of US markets i.e. Dow Jones, S&P, Nasdaq and Russell 2000. The direction of the indices is forecast dependent, it seems, mainly on Cestrian’s interpretation of the respective charts using, amongst other tools, the Fibonacci wave theory. I have on occasion doubted their market direction conclusions but, I have to say, they have each time been proved correct. Cestrian also provides intensive fundamental research on companies in their US company universe and I have benefitted here from following a number of their selections. It is a personal service and Alex welcomes subscribers’ questions.
I have in the past subscribed to other US based investment services but not only were they much more expensive but also didn’t begin to compare in success terms.
I think what I like most about Cestrian is that, through their chart expertise, they will also call the big moves i.e. markets moving overall from a bullish to a bearish stance and vice versa. In other words a statement to consider becoming net short would, in the event of markets changing to a downward trend, be forthcoming.
I worked as a private client investment manager for over 40 years but have learned a considerable amount, predominantly using charts, since joining Alex a few months ago. Cestrian comes highly recommended.
Anyway, let’s get to work. This is a no-paywall version of our daily market note - it’s truncated vs. the pay version & doesn’t include the Dow, tech or semiconductor sector analyses. Join Inner Circle to get the full monty every day.
US 10-Year Yield
A very material drop in the 10yr yield Friday.
Equity Volatility
Since we are into September and so far there remains no sign of fear, I myself rolled my protective index puts out and up from the September quarterly expiry to December (as disclosed in real time in our Inner Circle service last week).
Disclosure: No position in any Vix-based securities.
Longer-Term Treasury Bonds (TLT / TMF)
Big move up on Friday but still within the overall accumulation range - no breakout yet on this timeframe.
Over the 200-day moving average; this test has failed since November 2024; let’s see if this time is different.
Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.
Still below its 200-day; that said, if trading TMF I personally find it easier to use the TLT chart as the basis for doing so.
Disclosure: I am unhedged long $TLT and similar EU UCITS ETFs.
Ether
Bullish if over the 50-day at around $4135.
If you’d like to have AI help you to trade Ether, Bitcoin, Solana and key crypto-centric stocks, take a look at our Big Money Crypto algorithmic signals, here (independent investors) and here (investment professionals).
Disclosure - Long $ETHA and others in the Ether complex.
Oil (USO / WTI / UCO)
To repeat: remember that rangebound markets are designed to bore you to death before they break violently out of the range.
Breakout failed on this timeframe.
2x Levered Long (UCO) / Short (SCO)
Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.
UCO broke the upward sloping support trendline Friday.
Disclosure: No position in oil.
S&P500 / SPY / UPRO
Still in ‘nothing stops this train’ mode.
Potential corrective path and final Wave 5 high on this timeframe shown. Note that S&P500 futures are up slightly in overnight trading.
3x Levered Long / Short ETF - UPRO, SPXU
Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.
Left hand side, long-only degenerates. Right hand side, right-thinking risk-controlling hedgers. You can see who is winning the battle so far!
Disclosure: I am long $IUSA, and long SPY puts for December expiry. In aggregate net long the S&P.
Nasdaq-100 / QQQ / TQQQ
Nothing on this timeframe looks bearish right now.
Potential corrective path shown; for now, up. (Nasdaq futures are also up a little overnight).
Levered Nasdaq - TQQQ Long / SQQQ Short
Note - Leveraged ETF. Read the fund documentation if you are considering using this instrument.
Same story as the S&P500; the only mistake since April has been to not be long enough.
Disclosure: I am hedged 1.05:1 $TQQQ:$SQQQ, and have $TQQQ and $QQQ puts for December expiry. Overall net long the Nasdaq.
Alex King, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 7 September 2025.
DISCLOSURE - Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long positions in, inter alia, TQQQ, SQQQ, IUSA, TLT, DTLA, ETHE, ETHA; long December TQQQ, QQQ and SPY puts.