Ondas Systems (ONDS) Q1 FY12/26 Earnings Review - No Paywall
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Analysis by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc.
Ondas Systems ( $ONDS ) is a small-form-factor defense company in the modern idiom. It is building its product line by acquisition, which must be borne in mind when reading the financials. The company is guiding to 2026 full-year revenue of $390MM based on backlog of $457MM, but has reported revenues of just $96MM for the year to 31 March 2026. This is an aggressive outlook to say the least, but so far the company is managing capital markets’ expectations well and delivering against those expectations.
This kind of stock is best traded technically in my view; the current valuation represents some 47x TTM recognized revenue and 10x FY12/26 guide revenue. The company does not generate cash, so there is no relevant cashflow multiple. The market is bidding up this kind of play in anticipation of the Anduril IPO, expected later this year, in a similar manner to the space sector multiples rising in anticipation of the SpaceX IPO.
We rate $ONDS at Accumulate between $8.50-$11.60 based on the volume profile ie. where large accounts appear to be accumulating. This type of stock has the potential to achieve a 1.618 extension of the Wave 1 shown for a Wave 3 high, and so we rate the stock at Hold between $11.60 - $23. A prudent investor would likely use trailing stops or other risk management methods if and when the stock begins to climb up to those heights.
You can open a full page version of this chart, here.
Financial Fundamentals
Not only do you have extensive M&A effects, you also have the absence of cashflow statement in the earnings report today. The 10-Q has yet to be published - if that features a cashflow statement we’ll update our numbers. Otherwise the only meaningful cashflow number is the change in net cash as shown.
Valuation
I think we can call this “extended”! It doesn’t matter. It doesn’t trade on the valuation; it trades on demand for the stock and its options, simple.
Disclosure: Cestrian Capital Research, Inc staff personal accounts hold long position(s) in, inter alia, $ONDS.
Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 14 May 2026.
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