Toxic Balance Sheet Alert: CoreWeave Q3 FY12/25 Earnings Review
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Let’s Keep It Simple
CoreWeave isn’t going to make it in my view. I believe it will be one of the first casualties when the market turns down for real. The company has $12bn of net debt being (not) serviced by negative TTM cashflows of $9bn. Which by the way get more negative each quarter. The only thing keeping this company alive is regular cash infusions from debt and/or equity issuance.
It remains valued very highly in my view.
In my view, the game is up for these small, non-mission-critical, undercapitalized asset-intensive names.
From our resident credit nerd (note, when equity markets go bad, the credit nerds are king):
The credit market in the end will call time on these infinite money-eaters like $CRWV in my opinion. I personally would not short this because anything can happen, folks can step in to save any such loser, but I would not own a long position either.
Rating: Do Nothing.
Alex King, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 13 Nov 2025