How To Get The Most From Your SignalFlow AI Subscription
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What Is SignalFlow AI?
“SignalFlow AI” is a family of quantitative signal services developed by Jay Urbain, Ph.D. and delivered to you by Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. You can read the full detail about this family of services here - for now allow me to summarize. Each service in the family uses the SignalFlow AI machine learning model. The model utilizes pattern recognition methods to identify when, based on price and other inputs, it believes the security under consideration is about to enter a period of weakness. When the model believes the security is not about to enter a weak period, it identifies that moment as a state of “Risk On”. When the model believes a security is about to enter a period of weakness, it identifies that moment as a state of “Risk Off”.
We use that basic model idea to develop a range of signal services, all of which use the same principle to different ends.
For instance, the simplest and easiest-to-use service is “SignalFlow Long-Only $SPY”. As the name suggests, the service is focused on how to invest on a long-only basis in the S&P500 ETF, $SPY. Its goal is to help you outperform a simple buy-and-hold strategy; and the model tries to do that by helping you to avoid periods of weakness in $SPY.
We also provide more sophisticated services, using the exact same model principles. “SignalFlow Growth” analyzes $SPY to reach a view on whether it believes the equity market at large is about to enter a period of weakness; if so, it identifies that moment as “Risk Off”. If it believes no such period is ahead, i.e,. it believes the market to be in a “Risk On” state, the model then assesses which from a list of 10-15 growth-oriented ETFs are the most compelling names to own.
For investors who wish to pursue a market-neutral strategy, we provide “SignalFlow Long/Short”. This service runs four instances of the model simultaneously; it considers Risk On or Risk Off states in $SPY, $QQQ, $SH and $PSQ (the latter two being inverse S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 ETFs, respectively).
What Outputs Does SignalFlow AI Provide?
Each trading day around the close, each SignalFlow service provides a simple output.
Again let’s start with the simplest service, Long Only $SPY. At the close, subscribers receive the signal 1, Risk On; or 0, Risk Off.
The SignalFlow Growth service provides another level of sophistication; subscribers receive a 1, Risk On; or 0, Risk Off signal. If the signal is 0, Risk Off - that’s all there is for the day. If the signal is 1, Risk On - then the output will include the top 3 ETFs from its available basket that the model believes have the best chance of maximizing return.
SignalFlow For Bonds operates on a similar ‘rotation’ basis to SignalFlow Growth. But if in a Risk On state, instead of choosing from a selection of growth ETFs, it chooses its most compelling idea from a list of bond ETFs.
And the SignalFlow Long/Short service works thus; for each of $SPY, $QQQ, $SH and $PSQ the model prints its opinion - 0, Risk Off, or 1, Risk On.
How Do Subscribers Use The Outputs From SignalFlow AI?
As a subscriber to one or more SignalFlow services, it is best to first decide how you plan to use the signal outputs. The two extreme ends of the spectrum are:
- Take each signal in the service you follow and act on it precisely.
- Note what the model believes and treat that as one of a number of inputs into your investing and/or trading process.
We have subscribers that do (1), those that do (2), and those who fall somewhere in between.
As with all things quantitative, there remains a good degree of human decision-making to apply. Let’s say you decide to follow one of the SignalFlow AI models step by step; again let’s use the simplest, Long Only $SPY, as an example.
Using SignalFlow Long Only $SPY Signals As Trading Cues
You sign up on Monday morning; in this worked example you have an account which holds only cash, no securities, and you intend to use this account to run the SignalFlow AI Long Only $SPY strategy.
On Monday at the close, the model prints 0, Risk Off. You would in this example do nothing and continue to hold all cash.
On Tuesday at the close, the model prints 1, Risk On. You would in this example buy $SPY. You would have to decide (i) how much of your account to allocate to $SPY. All of it? Half of it? Etc. (ii) when to buy $SPY. Outside regular trading hours, in the post-market session? Wednesday at the open? Etc. The model’s backtests and live-trading performance reports assume, by the way, that the entire account would have been used to buy $SPY at the closing price.
On Wednesday at the close, the model prints 1, Risk On. Now you have some more decisions to make. If you allocated 100pc of your account to $SPY yesterday, do you do nothing? Do you add cash or draw on margin to over-allocate to $SPY? If you allocated 50pc of your account to $SPY on Tuesday, do you allocate the remaining cash now to $SPY?
Next week, the model prints 0, Risk Off. Your decisions are - do you sell everything - potentially incurring realized losses or taxable gains? Or something else? Again the model’s backtesting and live-trading performance reports assume that everything is sold and the account is back to holding 100pc cash.
Using SignalFlow ETF Rotation Signals As Trading Cues
A good number of the SignalFlow services use ETF rotation, which is to say the model decides whether it thinks its target market (equities or bonds) is in a 0, Risk Off or 1, Risk On state - and then selects from a list of ETFs those which it believes are the most compelling holds. Again the use of these signals does require some decision making on your part.
In the case of SignalFlow Growth, when the model prints 1, Risk On, and identifies, e.g., $SMH, $IBIT and $IGV as the top ETFs to own, you again have to decide in what allocation and when do I buy (after the close? at tomorrow’s open?).
In the case of SignalFlow Long/Short, if the model prints 1, Risk On for $SPY and for $SH (inverse S&P500), then if you operate a hedged trading model you might move to be long SPY and long SH in equal allocation. If you don’t care to hedge you might just go to cash.
The SignalFlow family of services comprise two elements - the signal channel for each one of the services to which you subscribe, and an accompanying discussion channel. You can see from the above why the discussion channel is so valuable. In this chat channel you can reach out to the models’ creator, Jay Urbain Ph.D., to Cestrian CEO Alex King, and to other traders and investors using the SignalFlow services. Speaking from experience, there is a wonderful store of value in the member community - people genuinely enjoy helping other people perform better. The beauty of the model we run here is that each and every member is running distinct pools of capital, be it their own or their clients’ or their investors’. Members aren’t competing with one another for a bonus or a promotion, which is what fosters the working-together-to-get-better environment.
Join Our Live Webinar
To learn more, please join us on WEDNESDAY 28 MAY at 4.15PM EASTERN when we will be talking about SignalFlow AI on a live and open-mic basis. You can register for the webinar here.
Please register for How To Turn Our Signal Service Outputs Into Trade Decisions on May 28, 2025 4:15 PM EDT at:
https://attendee.gotowebinar.com/register/317075411750970464
After registering, you will receive a confirmation email containing information about joining the webinar.
Questions?
If you have more questions about the SignalFlow family of service, here’s what to do.
If you’re a member of one or more SignalFlow services already, reach out in the SignalFlow Discussion Channel (here).
If you’re yet to join any of the SignalFlow services, use this contact form on our website. We’ll get right back to you.
Thanks as always for reading our work!
Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc - 28 May 2025