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Time To Decide
Right around now is the time that markets will either snap back to the upside, or slide meaningfully further down. A number of key levels apply; the 10-year yield at 5% has psychological significance if for no other reason than it's a whole number; the DXY being above $106 mattered in 2022 and it matters again now; the retest of a so-far triple-tested low in the NQ from May / September / October will weigh on the minds of Nasdaq investors; a triple test of the Dow's October lows the same for Dow investors, and the S&P500's potential date with 4200 the same for S&P investors.
Whilst it is true that market pivots to the upside always feel impossible right before they happen - and the same is true for market pivots to the downside! - sometimes there isn't a pivot. So, now is the time where either markets run up, or personally I shall be adding some short hedges in the 3x inverse ETFs. Disclosure beforehand in Slack as always.
A Word On Crypto
Bitcoin is behaving strangely at present. Let's say that the yield is up because investors don't want to own US T-bills. Let's say that gold is up for the same reason. And let's say that equities are down because of the macro risk from the situation in the Middle East. If Bitcoin is merely a store of value and/or a security, there is no reason it should be up on any volume. It can be up on low volume, of course, and Bitcoin futures can be up in response. But is anyone seriously buying Bitcoin in institutional volume as a parallel to the historic role of gold? I would be surprised. So whilst I see Bitcoin's ascent, and indeed have charted it along the way, I feel a little uncomfortable about how sustainable that is. The more I learn a about crypto the more this kind of thing concerns me. I sold all my crypto-derived positions last week as disclosed, eating modest realized losses to do so. So, no positions in ETHE nor BITO any longer. This may prove too soon or simply erroneous full stop but I think I would rather my capital was at work in US equities, indices and the typical kind of commodities that are CFTC-regulated, such as gold, uranium and so forth. The US legal system's attention on crypto is rising, not waning. Here's a CFTC action vs. Voyager Digital, here an NYAG action vs. Gemini, Genesis, and DCG (parent company of Grayscale, which manages GBTC, ETHE and so forth). This is a lot of risk which personally I would rather avoid.
The Matter In Hand
Let's get back to today and check in on where markets stand (including Bitcoin and Ether!).
Paying members, scroll right down for our latest take on markets. As always we look at the 10-year yield, the S&P500, Nasdaq-100, Dow Jones and the Russell 2000; we consider long-term and short-term outlooks, and we lay out staff personal account trading plans in each of the indices. We add Bitcoin and Ether futures pricing for good measure.
Price Rises Coming Soon For New Joiners
Want to sign up as a paying member? Our 'Extended' 6-year membership pricing rises 1 November; Annual and Monthly memberships rise 1 December, so, now's a great time to beat the raise.
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Note - to open full-page versions of these charts, just click on the chart headings, which are hyperlinks.