Market On Open, Monday 30 June

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Greeks Salad

by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc

To the extent there is any monkey business / selloffs followed by snapbacks / malarkey / situation normal / entirely rational reallocation of capital based on corporate earnings (delete according to your belief-system of how markets work, I choose the monkey) in the next day or two, you can blame the greeks. Small g.

Between the expiry of the JP Morgan Hedged Equity Funds’ collar trades (a quarterly event of these funds which are so ginormous that they move markets) and some options market traders setting themselves up to benefit from this expiry (on which Robert P. Balan has written, starting here), we may see some odd moves in the next day or two. Whether that delivers a market reversal or just a hiatus in the grind-up, no-one knows; personally I plan to stay hedged through today as it is Q2 end, and then see which way the wind is blowing thereafter. Insofar as anything is “real” in markets, quarter end effects are definitely less real than other things because they are blown this way and that way by options trades, mark-to-market ambitions for fund managers, and a host of other factors unrelated to high-minded long-term earnings-driven investing. (Which is surely a dying fashion!).

The only thing which is real is price; in a moment we’ll run through where price stands in the S&P500, the Nasdaq, the Dow, bonds, the Vix, and key sector ETFs.

But first - this:

Independence Day Sale

There’s never been a better time to sign up for our Inner Circle service. And until the close of Friday, you can do so at a reduced rate.

We’re offering 30% off Annual and 6-Year Extended memberships. If you’ve been thinking about signing up, or you currently pay monthly and you’d like to reduce your total cost of membership, this offer is for you.

Pricing with the Independence Day discount:

• Annual Independent - falls from $4999/yr to $3499/yr (here)
• Annual Investment Professional - falls from $9999/yr to $6999/yr (here)
• 6-Year Extended Independent - falls from $19,999 to $13,999, equivalent to just $233/mo (here)
• 6-Year Extended Investment Professional - falls from $39,999 to $27,999 (here).

Please note, for those of you who signed up for any of these Inner Circle membership tiers in the month of June, we’ll offer you a store credit equal to the discounts above, which you can use against any Cestrian purchases within the next 6 months.

OK. Let’s get to work!