Market On Open - Thursday 26 October

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Take A Step Back

Obviously we are all doomed, as everyone keeps telling each other at present. The market is in freefall and blah. But let's for a moment just get a little perspective. What is actually happening that isn't in the minute-by-minute price?

  1. Fundamentals. GDP continues to be strong, and company fundamentals too. In the megacaps we now have Q3 reports from Microsoft (excellent numbers), Meta Platforms (excellent numbers) and Google (ho-hum numbers). Amazon reports after the close today.
  2. Rates. The ECB said today what the Fed won't say. "Watch My Lips - No New Hikes". (Somehow the ECB trusts market participants more than does the Fed. Perhaps Chairman Powell is fearful of the 0DTE wrecking crew that doesn't so much operate in the Old World).
  3. Bonds. Probably on the way up, meaning yields down, meaning risk-free rate down, meaning equities up, usually.

Indices have been weak since the July peak; it's felt like a long time. We remain bullish.

Let's Get To It

Paying members, scroll right down for our latest take on markets. As always we look at the 10-year yield, the S&P500, Nasdaq-100, Dow Jones and the Russell 2000; we consider long-term and short-term outlooks, and we lay out staff personal account trading plans in each of the indices. We add Bitcoin and Ether futures pricing for good measure.

Note - to open full-page versions of these charts, just click on the chart headings, which are hyperlinks.