Read Even If You Don't Care A Rodent's Behind About Boeing.
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Narratives, The Enemy Of Profit
by Alex King
A theme running through most all of our work here at Cestrian is that one should always be at pains to ignore the "narrative" ie. the coalesced and indeed usually manufactured orthodox view of the direction of any given security price. The only reality about any security is its price, and its future price may, for much of the time at least, be estimated by reference only to its price history. There are exceptions and dislocations to that logic but it is broadly correct and it is the reason why technical analysis has such power. Most sensible folk will tell you that chart analysis is useful over relatively short timeframes - the price of the S&P500 in 1944 isn't all that helpful in determining its price tomorrow for instance - but correctly executed, technical analysis is a wonderful tool for the open-minded investor.
The narrative of markets in 2022 was, Doom Is Nigh. And there was certainly a selloff in the first half of the year. But as soon as May of 2022, institutional accumulation was underway in all the major equities and equity indices. The low-volume spike highs in August and low-volume spike lows in October and, in the case of the Nasdaq and S&P500, December, were merely headfakes. Yearlong accumulation began to pay off big for market bigs by the end of Q1 2023, and it is still paying off.
The narrative of markets in 2023 was, The Lows Are Not In. When quite clearly the Lows Were Very Much In, as we shouted loud and clear in this service All Year Long.
Narratives are not to be trusted.
And the narrative surrounding Boeing stock right now is, in my view, not to be trusted. Let's take a look at why.