Do Nonfarm Payrolls Signal A Recession Ahead?

Do Nonfarm Payrolls Signal A Recession Ahead?
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Yimin Xu, July 08 2024

The latest economic data has been a mixed bag, pointing to the further softening of the economy. Today we are going to dive into the latest jobs report, the PCE, as well as Powell’s speech.

Sign Post:

  • June Nonfarm Payrolls beat expectations, but revisions show underlying concerns.
  • Sahm Rule of Recession may be triggered soon.
  • Hourly earnings decelerating, May PCE slowing down, Fed divided on rate cuts.
  • This is seasonally a strong week for equities - full breakdown of SPY, QQQ, IWM.