Macro Musings: A Detailed April CPI Preview

Macro Musings: A Detailed April CPI Preview
Photo by NFT gallery / Unsplash

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by Alex King, CEO, Cestrian Capital Research, Inc

Folks, there is a an awful lot of absolute garbage talked all over financial media of all kinds, both traditional and social, about inflation, rates, and the impact on equities. If you are at all interested in actual facts devoid of opinion and blather, I would urge you to read the Macro Musings series we publish here at Cestrian. I can say this because I don’t write them!! That credit falls to Yimin Xu, a former professional rates trader (translated - actually is qualified to comment and opine on this stuff, unlike virtually everyone else who comments and opines on this stuff). Yimin has written the Macro Musings notes for us for many years now and whilst I have never known him do anything other than great work, this piece today is particularly good. He takes a look at (1) what is actually driving inflation and therefore (2) what the data is likely to be on Wednesday this week when CPI prints and (3) then takes a look at what has driven the equity rally since 19 April, which by the way does not appear to be renewed confidence in rate cuts.

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OK. So, over to Yimin!

CPI on Wednesday will be the highlight of this month

By Yimin Xu, May 13th, 2024

This is a painfully detailed CPI preview. If you are short on time, I will give you my finding summary here. However, if you read the entire article, you will also discover the true driver behind the recent Equity market’s not so “random walk”.