Market On Open - Thursday 21 March

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The Crucible Of The Coming Crisis

by Alex King

Inflation is ticking up but nobody at the Fed much wants to hike or hold for very long. To my untrained macro eye that looks like a pending setup for another rate-hike crisis in a year or so; that’s not today’s problem but it likely will be what causes the next major market topping. At which point get ready to switch from default net long to default net short. But that’s not today.

The final reaction from FOMC isn’t in yet; equities mooned once Chairman Powell delivered his final encore, but that may just provide an opportunity to wrest late money out of the hands of the little people. We have to see how the week ends from a short-term perspective. From a medium-term perspective though, looking towards year end, this market continues to look bullish to me.

Below we run through our usual charts - we cover the US 10-year yield, the S&P500 in three incarnations (SPY, ES, UPRO), Nasdaq, the Dow and the Russell ditto (unlevered ETF, futures and 3x leveraged ETFs in each case) - plus some sector-specific levered and unlevered ETFs. We do this daily for our paying members here.

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Short- And Medium-Term Market Analysis