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Well, yesterday was remarkable, particularly if you were long TNA (the 3x long Russell 2000 ETF). Up huge on the day, and yet still way down in the doldrums if you look at a zoomed-out chart, particularly if you compare to the primary three US equity indices, all of which are looking up to new all time highs. The Russell 2000 looks surprisingly bullish at present - it has already put in a viable Wave 2 pullback and now looks to be in a Wave 3 up, which may have some way yet to run. The S&P, Nasdaq and the Dow have been only-up since their October lows, which ought to make one wary of an impending pullback.
Futures were up overnight and remain that way early today. We have to see whether the equities roll over in regular trading hours. As regards the Big Money dynamic at work here, I think it all depends on how the bigs have fared in 2023 year to date. Those that have been positioned correctly will be taking gains now and possibly feinting this way and that to be able to buy one more downcycle before a final push up into year end - this argues in favor of a pullback. Those that missed the March to July rally - many did - and who then shorted into CPI - many did - will be compelled to buy hand over fist now, to make up for prior underperformance and try to hit a decent return by year end, the better to report to investors and to collect the good performance fee for that all-important third home in the Hamptons. (And not one near those ghastly Airbnbs).
Time to stay on one's toes.
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Paying members, scroll right down for our latest take on markets. As always we look at the 10-year yield, the S&P500, Nasdaq-100, Dow Jones and the Russell 2000; we consider long-term and short-term outlooks, and we lay out staff personal account trading plans in each of the indices. We add Bitcoin and Ether futures pricing for good measure. And - NEW! - we now include the 3x index ETFs TQQQ, UPRO, UDOW and TNA.
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