Market On Open - Monday 28 August 2023

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A Lesson In How Securities Markets Really Work

The whole of last week, as we documented day by day, was in essence one huge game designed to induce fear and greed into the unsuspecting investor.  Greed in anticipation of the Nvidia earnings print on Wednesday; even more greed after the killer beat that the company delivered; and then white-knuckle fear as late buyers saw their money evaporate with the dump Thursday and early Friday.  And then a good old dose of FOMO as Friday closed the week green regardless, with a big afternoon buy run once civilians had been shaken out of their stop losses with post-Jackson-Hole gyrations for an hour or two.  

You can make money in this environment in two ways, it seems to us.  One, buy dips and sell highs on a timeframe of 30mins to an hour maybe; this works if you don't believe anything you see and you can just quietly sit at your screen chalking up profits.  Or two, zoom out, adopt a longer timeframe, and set sail accordingly.  The charts in these daily notes ought to help you with months/years timeframe (the larger degree ETF charts) and days/weeks timeframe (the smaller degree futures charts).  

OK.  Let's get to the action to start a fresh week.

The Good Part

For our paying members only we now walk through the shorter- and longer-term outlooks for the S&P500, the Nasdaq, the Dow and the Russell.  

We also include more detailed Cestrian staff personal account trading plans in our charts - these are disclosures rather than commandments, we include them to (1) clarify our own thinking and (2) to help explain what we think about the direction of markets. Paying Inner Circle members can reach out in Slack anytime to discuss.  You will, of course, make your own decisions as to how to use our charts.