Model Portfolio Report (No Paywall)

Model Portfolio Report (No Paywall)
Photo by Crissy Jarvis / Unsplash

DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.


by Alex King

We provide model portfolios in two service tiers:

  • Inner Circle (this).
  • Registered Investment Advisor - Insight Pro (this).

If you're a free reader or a Market Insight subscriber, just click the 'Account' button on this page if you want to upgrade to one of those services. If you have any problems doing so, you can reach us using this contact form.

The approach we take with our model portfolios is that of capital rotation. We are looking to rotate model capital into sectors that appear to be under institutional accumulation; to hold in the event the portfolios rise, particularly if rising ahead of the benchmark; and then to rotate out of sectors that appear to be under distribution and/or fading in their outperformance vs. the benchmark. These are not buy-and-hold-forever models; neither are they short-term trading models.

We believe a reliable method to outperform the S&P500 consistently over time is to adopt this rotation method. This is precisely how institutional investors seek to outperform; implemented correctly, the strategy can be successful year in, year out, and using only common stocks and/or ETFs - no need for complex instruments nor leverage. As an example of banking gains in these models, we closed out the Dow Laggards (inception July 2023) and the Financials (inception June 2023) model portfolios as they topped out in their outperformance vs. the equity indices.

Let's do the school report. In each case, performance is measured as follows:

  • Constituent stocks and/or ETFs were allocated on the day of inception, with no changes since.
  • No cash was left in the model portfolio after allocation of stocks / ETFs.
  • All dividends received in the model are re-invested back into buying additional shares of the stock or ETF that produced the dividend.
  • No fees are included, since these are intended to be self-managed portfolios. If as an RIA you run these models as real-money portfolios for your clients, this performance is before any fees you may levy. If you would like us to run these model returns inclusive of your fees, please contact us.

Model Portfolio Performance - From Inception To 28 June 2024.

Access: This note has no paywall. We deal with performance at portfolio-level only; Inner Circle and RIA Insight Pro subscribers have visibility on the underlying constituent stocks and/or ETFs.

Core Stocks - Inception 7 February 2023

High Beta Stocks - Inception 17 March 2023

Defense Stocks - Inception 24 January 2024

Note - this was constructed specifically as a defensive portfolio - we did not and do not expect it to outperform the S&P500. We plan to keep this model portfolio open for as long as it sustains reasonably positive total returns.

Enterprise Software Stocks - Inception 12 June 2024

Energy Stocks - Inception 25 June 2024

Early days for this one. Let's see how it goes. We specified individual stop-loss levels for each constituent stock so that anyone following this model portfolio can lock in downside protection in the event that we have called this sector incorrectly. Our model portfolio performance in the last 15-18 months has been exceptionally good - it would be wonderful if that continued indefinitely but on the basis that some of these picks will be wrong, we include risk-management techniques with each and every model portfolio we create.

Remember, if you want to access the existing and our future model portfolios? You need to be an Inner Circle or an RIA - Insight Pro subscriber. You can click here to sign up for one of those services.

Cestrian Capital Research, Inc, 30 June 2024.