Market Before The Open - Tuesday 21 November

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There Is, Was, And Only Ever Shall Be Green

Around now is where folks begin to conclude that Markets Only Go Up. Anyone who is short is now worrying a lot and will likely soon throw in the towel, leading to more buying. Anyone sat in cash is starting to develop FOMO. They will likely join the party soon. More buying. This we think will lead to a local top sometime in the not too distant future. Followed by another selloff, the better to take more money from the normalfolk and hand it over to the barons once more. But not too much money, else the normals will be dissuaded from joining the party at all, and then who will be the prey? Other barons? Not very seemly.

In play now is the question of whether our bull or base case for the Nasdaq - and with that the same question for the S&P - is correct. Our focus here is very keenly on whether the Wave 5 termination zones in the S&P and Nasdaq charts we've pointed to for some months do in fact see a termination there. If yes? Look out below in 2024 (it will be worse than 2022 if we hit larger-degree Wave 5 highs in the near future). If no? Then there's a good chance we're in larger-degree Wave 3 up and if that's true then this present fierce bull market may continue for a lot longer than anyone thinks. We'll be real-time focused on this stuff in Slack chat and these notes in the service.

Below we lay out our take on each of the indices and the long 3x ETFs we use to trade those indices. As always our work is focused on understanding where be barons and where be normals. Our goal is to lay out where the barons are buying, holding, or selling, and then aim to follow along with them - not too much ahead of them, not too far behind. In this way we want to be accumulating when the bigs are accumulating, and distributing when the bigs are doing likewise.

Today we have some changes. Out goes crypto coverage (so no more BTC or ETH futures) and in comes the following 3x ETFs: TECL (= 3x long XLK) and SOXL (= 3x long SOXX). They each have inverses which can be used for naked short, or hedged positions - TECS and SOXS, respectively.

Righto - on with it!

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