DISCLAIMER: This note is intended for US recipients only and, in particular, is not directed at, nor intended to be relied upon by any UK recipients. Any information or analysis in this note is not an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy any securities. Nothing in this note is intended to be investment advice and nor should it be relied upon to make investment decisions. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc., its employees, agents or affiliates, including the author of this note, or related persons, may have a position in any stocks, security, or financial instrument referenced in this note. Any opinions, analyses, or probabilities expressed in this note are those of the author as of the note's date of publication and are subject to change without notice. Companies referenced in this note or their employees or affiliates may be customers of Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. Cestrian Capital Research, Inc. values both its independence and transparency and does not believe that this presents a material potential conflict of interest or impacts the content of its research or publications.
There Is, Was, And Only Ever Shall Be Green
Around now is where folks begin to conclude that Markets Only Go Up. Anyone who is short is now worrying a lot and will likely soon throw in the towel, leading to more buying. Anyone sat in cash is starting to develop FOMO. They will likely join the party soon. More buying. This we think will lead to a local top sometime in the not too distant future. Followed by another selloff, the better to take more money from the normalfolk and hand it over to the barons once more. But not too much money, else the normals will be dissuaded from joining the party at all, and then who will be the prey? Other barons? Not very seemly.
In play now is the question of whether our bull or base case for the Nasdaq - and with that the same question for the S&P - is correct. Our focus here is very keenly on whether the Wave 5 termination zones in the S&P and Nasdaq charts we've pointed to for some months do in fact see a termination there. If yes? Look out below in 2024 (it will be worse than 2022 if we hit larger-degree Wave 5 highs in the near future). If no? Then there's a good chance we're in larger-degree Wave 3 up and if that's true then this present fierce bull market may continue for a lot longer than anyone thinks. We'll be real-time focused on this stuff in Slack chat and these notes in the service.
Below we lay out our take on each of the indices and the long 3x ETFs we use to trade those indices. As always our work is focused on understanding where be barons and where be normals. Our goal is to lay out where the barons are buying, holding, or selling, and then aim to follow along with them - not too much ahead of them, not too far behind. In this way we want to be accumulating when the bigs are accumulating, and distributing when the bigs are doing likewise.
Today we have some changes. Out goes crypto coverage (so no more BTC or ETH futures) and in comes the following 3x ETFs: TECL (= 3x long XLK) and SOXL (= 3x long SOXX). They each have inverses which can be used for naked short, or hedged positions - TECS and SOXS, respectively.
Righto - on with it!
Only Ten Days Left To Lock In Today's Low Prices
If you're a free subscriber here, be aware that our prices rise on 1 December for our annual and monthly subscriptions. Monthly goes up from $249/mo to $299/mo; and Annual from $1999/yr to $2499/yr. Once you sign up, you don't get hit with a price rise. Only new joiners pay more. That way, the sooner you join, the less you pay.
You can sign up for a monthly or an annual subscription at the button below. If you want to take our best-value option, an extended 6-year membership (a 50% discount on the monthly, and a 25% discount on the annual), you can do so by clicking here.
(Monthly and annual members can upgrade to an extended membership anytime & we'll deduct any unused portion of your current subscription from your upgrade cost).
Any difficulties signing up, or if you have any questions whatsoever, you can reach us using this contact form - we'll get it done for you.
Let's Get To Work
Note - to open full-page versions of these charts, just click on the chart headings, which are hyperlinks.