Market On Open - Thursday 3 August

Everyone Still Wants That Correction.  Right?

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"We Always Said ..."

Since literally everyone everywhere has been saying, this thing is insane, it's overbought, we need a correction?  Well folks, the good people at Fitch Ratings just stepped in to play their part in the August Seal Tossing Games.  If you give it about, oh, ten minutes, you can expect to see folks calling for a New Bear Market and in particular that They Always Said It Was Just A Bear Market Rally.

In the dictionary of Neurolinguistic Programming there are few finer phrases than "We Always Said".  You can translate it as, "we didn't say that at all, but we are now going to convince you that we did".  If you see the phrase, "We Always Said"?  Then be sure to invert whatever comes next in the sentence.

This correction is a problem for your regular type of stock market expert.  Bearish types who have seen their accounts bleed out all year will now wheel out the We Always Said argument.  Bullish types - there are less of them, it has to be said - will be saying We Always Said We Expected A Correction.

Here at Cestrian Inner Circle, where the only thing we know for sure is all the things we don't know for sure, this is here's what we said Monday before the Rug Pull, with our staff personal account index ETF positions in mind:

A pullback will come, and when it does, we have to decide whether to just close the shorts out at a small gain or loss, and let the longs ride down in anticipation of them riding back up the wave, or, whether to close out both the long and short side of the index ETFs in order to reduce gross exposure.  That's something we have a close eye on.  If you're a paying member here, you'll know just after we know, but before we place trades - as always watch for the Trade Disclosure alerts in Slack.  

Where do we stand?  Has the Nasdaq engaged in a terrifying drop? Is it now at the level it was in ... 2019?  October 2022?  January 2023?  Oh wait.  No, it's right where it was about three weeks back when everyone said it was at an insanely high level.  For now, not much of a correction, yet.

So let's get to it.  For our paying members only we walk through the shorter- and longer-term outlooks for the S&P500, the Nasdaq, the Dow and the Russell.  If you've yet to sign up to a paying plan here, you can do so right from the link below.