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The Faltering Recovery Continues
Friday last week saw spike-low and reversals in each of the major equity indices. This is the Nasdaq, for instance:
Oftentimes that kind of reversal can mark a low. It represents the lack of any willing sellers below a given level. And so far, Monday this week closed up after a will-it-won't-it start to the day. At the time of writing, Tuesday is up across all four major US equity indices in pre-market hours.
Potholes this week include Chairman Powell's Jackson Hole speech and Nvidia $NVDA earnings. We expect some volatility around the Powell speech in the usual way but we don't believe it will lead to a sustained market selloff. And we're long-term bullish on Nvidia unless something fundamental changes on the earnings print. The company can miss for sure, since the guidance posted for this quarter was so outrageous that one should not be surprised to see a miss (which would likely punch the stock price in the mouth, short term anyway). But the current capex refresh cycle in tech, which has an AI narrative but is overdue anyway, is likely to continue to benefit $NVDA, more so than $AMD or $INTC. So unless we see a fundamental change to the story we will treat any dip as just that, a dip. We'll write up $NVDA earnings in this service since it is a stock in our Inner Circle Core Stocks basket that we initiated on February 7 this year. Here's how that basket is doing by the way.
Now let's turn to our daily market note.
The Heart Of The Matter
For our paying members only we now walk through the shorter- and longer-term outlooks for the S&P500, the Nasdaq, the Dow and the Russell.
We also include more detailed Cestrian staff personal account trading plans in our charts - these are disclosures rather than commandments, we include them to (1) clarify our own thinking and (2) to help explain what we think about the direction of markets. Paying Inner Circle members can reach out in Slack anytime to discuss. You will, of course, make your own decisions as to how to use our charts.