Palantir, Trapped

Palantir, Trapped
Photo by Parker Coffman / Unsplash

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$PLTR Q1 FY12/24 Earnings Review

by Alex King


  • Palantir delivered accelerating and indeed better-than-guide revenue growth this quarter - and the guide for next quarter is for further acceleration. That's good.
  • Last quarter we said that we thought cashflow margins had peaked - they were down a lot this quarter (from +28% TTM UFCF to +24% TTM UFCF).
  • The chart continues to explain why PLTR stock can't break over $25 and stay there.
  • Read on for our ratings, financial and technical analysis, and price targets.

Is It Different This Time Though?

Personally, Palantir stock has been good to me, both via the common stock and via LEAPs. I gradually took gains on various positions and have been out of the stock since February this year.

These are the sells I posted in our Seeking Alpha service from mid-2023 to early 2024.

I have no plans to open a new position.


Two reasons.

One, because on fundamentals the company looks to be at peak everything. To my eye at least, this business looks not like the Second Coming Of The Prophet Of Your Choice, as the FinTwit chorus would have you believe, but instead like a Second Generation Government Focused Software Company. For a business selling huge applications to huge customers, the fundamentals are excellent - +25% TTM revenue growth on a revenue base of $2bn+, and 22% unlevered pretax FCF margins on a TTM basis, is a superb combination. But ramping growth from here is going to be tough, because government, and ramping margins from here is going to be tough, because government. Yes, there is an enterprise-focused side of the business but that has a way to go before it begins to move the needle on the whole thing.

Two, because volume shelf, the bad kind, which is to say an overhead volume shelf. We'll talk more about that when we cover the stock chart below.

For now, here's the headline numbers.

Headline Numbers

Fundamental Analysis, Valuation, Rating, Price Targets

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